Reality vs. Spin in Afghanistan Posted by Michael Cohen

Over at Foreign Policy.com I have a new piece up arguing that there is a growing divide between reality and the military spin coming out of Afghanistan:

Today there are two wars taking place in Afghanistan. The first is the war confidently described by the U.S. military: a conflict that according to leading military commanders and even the secretary of defense is "headed in the right direction" and has a "good chance at success." This war is hard but not hopeless; more Afghan soldiers are being trained and an increasing number of Taliban commanders are, as one Western military commander recently put it, "getting an absolute arse-kicking."

But virtually every day there are press reports that speak of another war. It is one defined by rising civilian and military death tolls in a growing number of once-safe regions -- particularly in the north of the country -- now marred by violence and insecurity; government corruption and incompetence that remains as bad as ever; and an increasing sense of fatalism among the Afghan people. In this war, pessimism, not optimism, is the dominant outlook. The problem is that the latter conflict actually seems to be taking place -- while the former seems to be a figment of the military leadership's imagination.

This growing divide is increasingly bringing into question the very credibility of U.S. military statements about military progress in Afghanistan.

Read the whole thing here

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As defined by the rise of civil and military authorities, the death toll increases once the areas of security, particularly in the north is now marked by violence and insecurity, government corruption and incompetence, which is bad as always, and still feel fatalism among the people of Afghanistan.

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Having just returned from 15 months over there, I'd say there's nothing new here since both truths are not mutually exclusive. The mil actually is "kicking arse..." Afterall, virtually every assault on FOBs like Salerno and BAF are crushed. Our SKTs repeatedly hit the AAF hard in the mountains so mil spokespersons and leaders can honestly say "we're kicking tail." However, the insidious and pervasive problem is GIRoA itself. As the writer states government corruption and incompetence prevails. Since COIN is based upon creating a government that resolves the populations grievenaces and GIRoA not only fails to do that because of incompetence, but rather actively works to undermine CF attempts to aid in its maturation, the AAF is growing in presence which leads to more conflict in spite of mil victories in the field... You will not hear a DOS rep say "we're really building a strong government" you'll hear them speak aspiritively. "We hope...we're trying...we think..." And, we repeatedly look to the mil to answer political questions, which they are loathe to do.

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