The Numbers of U.S. Foreign Assistance in the Middle East: What do they tell us? Posted by Shadi Hamid

The Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) has released a fascinating new paper grinding down the budget numbers on the U.S. foreign assistance to the Middle East, and, more importantly, telling us what these numbers mean for political reform and democratization in the region. The numbers, in my view, are not particularly encouraging and appear to reflect the downgrading of democracy in the hierarchy of American priorities (at least outside of Afghanistan/Pakistan).

In some sense, budgets speak louder than words. As the paper's author, Stephen McInerney, notes, "[President Obama's] budget request can be viewed as one of the first tangible demonstrations of democracy's place in the administration's approach to the Middle East." Here are some of Steve's conclusions:

• President Obama’s increased emphasis on Afghanistan and Pakistan is clearly backed up by an enormous investment of resources, including dramatic support for democratic institutions and civil society
• President Obama demonstrates strong support for two Bush administration initiatives – MEPI and MCC – that many feared may be discontinued for political reasons
• Cuts to civil society are particularly severe in Egypt and Jordan – two key Arab allies for which overall democracy and governance funding is also reduced.

It is this last point which is particularly concerning to me. Egypt and Jordan are among America's most vital Arab allies and the only two countries in the region that have signed peace treaties with Israel. Because Egypt and Jordan are perceived to be such reliable, albeit autocratic, allies, it is assumed that democracy or any substantive political change in Egypt or Jordan will bear consequences for our broader national interest in the Middle East. Of course, Egypt, in particular, is not necessarily stable, with a succession crisis looming and a ruling party more intent than ever on impose its will (through force) on a people that has long ceased to believe in its legitimacy.

On the other hand, we can afford to increase democracy assistance to countries that are seen as less strategically vital, such as Morocco and Yemen, two countries whose aid packages have increased significantly in this fiscal year.

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The recent history of foreign assistance shows a distinct correlation between aid and violence. Perhaps aid itself does not cause violence, but there is strong evidence that it contributes to a culture of corruption, government malfeasance, and terrorism that has had lethal consequences for both Israelis and Palestinians over the past decade.