Iraq Provincial Election Hot Spot: Nineveh Province Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

The LA Times has an excellent piece on what is likely to become the next major fault line in Iraq - Kurds and Arabs in Nineveh province.  The simmering problem is a clear demonstration of the mixed blessing of elections.  If the upcoming provincial elections are seen as legitimate by all sides, they  could act to stabilize the situation and create a more inclusive and effective local government.   If the they are perceived as unfair by either side they could ignite some serious violence in Northern Iraq.

What are the complications? Well, the problem right now is that Nineveh is roughly 75% Arab - mostly Sunni (The estimate comes from someone  I talked to over there but no real hard data to back it up.  It's definitely a majority).  But because the Sunnis boycotted the 2005 elections, the provincial council is dominated by the Kurds, who want portions of Nineveh to become part of the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq.  On top of that, the security forces in Nineveh are for a large part Kurdish Peshmerga.  The central government is trying to bring in security forces that are friendlier to the Arabs and right now we've got a power struggle leading to disconcerting statements such as this one from an Iraqi politician:

"When we have the ability to protect these areas, we will ask Kurdistan to leave them," said Yahya Abdul Majoud of the Iraqi Islamic Party, which is considered the less extreme Sunni faction in the north. "If they agree or not, it's not the Kurds' choice," he said, adding that the Iraqi army should replace Kurdish units in Nineveh in six months to a year.

The big question is what happens next.  If either side perceives that it has been wronged in the upcoming elections, you could see a real mess start to unfold.  If all sides are satisfied with the results, you could have a significant breakthrough and progress towards a more inclusive and functional Iraqi government. 

The smarter move might have been to go with some kind of conflict resolution process such as the one suggest by this excellent ICG Report (PDF).   But we're beyond that point now.  Elections are going to happen.  So let's hope things go well.

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The big question is what happens next. If either side perceives that it has been wronged in the upcoming elections, you could see a real mess start to unfold. If all sides are satisfied with the results, you could have a significant breakthrough and progress towards a more inclusive and functional Iraqi government.

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Nineveh Province, of which Mosul is the capital, is roughly 70 percent Sunni Arab, 20 percent Kurd and 10 percent minorities, including Christians.....

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