NSN Daily Update 5/7/2009 Posted by The National Security Network

See today's complete daily update here.

What We’re Reading

Meetings between President Obama, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari continue for a second day.  The Obama administration is skeptical of President Karzai.

Afghan troops fired on rock-throwing protestors angry over the U.S. airstrikes that may have killed dozens of people this week.  The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David McKiernan dispatched a joint U.S.-Afghan investigative team to probe into the incident.

Pakistan attacked Taliban positions in Swat valley as civilians continue to flee.

The Czech Republic approved the Lisbon Treaty yesterday.  Ireland, Germany and Poland are now the only countries yet to ratify the agreement.

Commentary of the Day

Senator John Kerry and Rep. David Dreier discuss the importance of trade in bringing peace to Georgia and Russia and allowing the U.S. to form closer ties with both.

British barrister Philippe Sands explains how and why Spain could prosecute Bush administration officials for torture.

The New York Times pushes for more transparency on the torture memos.

Sending the Wrong Signal on Democracy and Human Rights Posted by Michael Cohen

I'm a day late to this story but this week's must read on democracy promotion comes courtesy of the Washington Post, which has a piece on the growing fear in the human rights community that the Obama Administration is backing away from a strong US commitment to democracy promotion and support for human rights,

Perhaps most worrisome is that the Administration's seeming lack of interest in democracy promotion is seeping into US diplomacy.  In particular noted that Administration is offering olive branches to Sudan at the same time that the government in Khartoum is kicking out international humanitarian aid workers and nearly two months after the International Criminal Court indicted President Omar al-Bashir for war crimes.

According to the Post, retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Scott Gration who has been appointed a special envoy for Sudan, "alarmed activists by telling them privately that he is looking at easing sanctions imposed by Bush and at whether Sudan should be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism."

"He thinks that to keep banging on Khartoum is not the right way," said Omar Ismail, a Darfurian refugee and policy activist who has met with Gration three times. "He said he wants to build rapport with Khartoum.

I understand the desire to build bridges with the Sudanese government, but to be floating these ideas at the same time that Khartoum is moving against the NGOs operating in Darfur is a terrible message to be sending - and basically gives semi-authoritarian governments around the world virtual carte blanche to marginalize and challenge civil society and NGO groups with little fear of a tough US response. This is not even to mention the fact that the President of Sudan is an indicted war criminal.

I understand that the Obama Administration wants to turn the page on the Bush Administration's failed foreign policy. But at least when it comes to democracy promotion, they appear to be taking the wrong course.

NSN Daily Update 5/6/2009 Posted by The National Security Network

See today's complete daily update here.

What We’re Reading

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari are in DC for joint talks with President Obama.  Zardari tries to reassure the U.S. on the state of Pakistan and the Obama administration expressed its confidence in Zardari.  Pakistan continues to push back against Taliban incursions in Swat valley.  The Pakistani police are underfunded and overwhelmed.

An internal Justice Department inquiry that has not yet been finalized concluded that the authors of the torture memos committed serious lapses in judgment. The report could recommend that they be sanctioned by state bar associations, but will not call for prosecutions.

Tensions rise between NATO and Russia.  NATO military exercises began today and Russia expelled two Canadian diplomats in retaliation in an ongoing spying scandal.

The Red Cross found that U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan on Tuesday killed dozens of civilians, including women and children.

Commentary of the Day

John Wendle explains that while President Mikheil Saakashvili blames Moscow for unrest in Georgia, but his biggest problem is actually domestic.

The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the LA Times discuss the meeting between Presidents Obama, Karzai and Zardari.

John L. Allen Jr. thinks that Pope Benedict XVI should get more deeply involved in forging peace in the Middle East.  The Pope will travel to Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories starting Friday.

Finding Common Ground Posted by Michael Cohen

As regular readers of DA know I've been critical, at times of a certain advocate of counter-insurgency, but today over at World Politics Review (below a brilliant take on the issue of foreign aid) John Nagl and Brian Burton have a good piece on the agenda for new Iraqi Ambassador Chris Hill.

Nagl and Burton argue that Hill should encourage the Iraqi government to diversify its economic base beyond oil and foster deeper economic ties to Turkey and the Arab states. These ideas make sense, although I'm not sure how much influence Hill will have in making them a reality, but Nagl's other point merits attention:

Engage with Iraqi institutions rather than just Iraqi leaders. Supporting the Iraqi government does not mean giving al-Maliki a blank check. To shore up Iraq's fragile democracy, you should ensure that American delegations cultivate civic professionalism in the Iraqi government bureaucracy and establish ties between peaceful opposition parties and local citizens' groups. Developing Iraqi civil society will help prevent a lapse back into dictatorship. While the temptation to consign Iraq to authoritarianism is strong, its long-term value as a strategic partner will be greatly enhanced by the success of its democracy.

This is exactly right. Too often US policymakers view individual leaders as the key vessels in embedding democratic practices, but as Nagl correctly points out institutions matter a lot more individuals.  That means institutions like an effective judiciary, a functioning legislature, an independent media, a vibrant civil society etc. Ultimately, as America's own experience in democracy reminds us these institutions are the foundation of a sustainable and effective democracy.

Moreover, this is one place where an Ambassador can make a real difference; namely in reaching out to local groups, opposition parties, professional associations, NGOs etc. Now only if we continue to get our foreign aid to move in this direction we'll really be on to something.

Better Aid, Not Dead Aid Posted by Michael Cohen

The Zambian economist Dambisa Moyo has a new controversial book about aid to Africa called Dead Aid. Over at World Politics Review I offer a few thoughts on a book that reads like it was written by an economist and researched by an undergraduate:

Instead of offering ideas to improve aid Moyo takes the opposite approach, asserting that aid is altogether bad for Africa and should be gradually replaced with foreign investment. Moyo's solutions may on the surface seem reasonable, but her argument is simplistic, and even dangerous. 

 . . . Across the development spectrum, there is a raging debate over how aid can be delivered more effectively, to better reach poor Africans. In an era of fiscal belt-tightening, this debate is more crucial than ever. That Moyo wants to help her native continent is not in dispute. But the naïve solutions she advocates in "Dead Aid" would have the exact opposite effect, and risk emboldening those who argue for turning off the aid tap for reasons that have nothing to do with altruistic support for African countries.

Moyo would have been better off writing a book that gets to the heart of the problems facing the African continent, instead of offering a bogeyman (aid) and remedy (going cold turkey) that would only consign another generation of Africans to grinding hardship.

Read the whole thing here

NSN Daily Update 5/5/2009 Posted by The National Security Network

See today's complete daily update here.

What We’re Reading

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen said that Afghanistan is the U.S. military’s main effort and top focus.  CNN interviewed Afghan Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid.  Jalrez Valley proves a good test case for the influx of U.S. forces into Afghanistan.  Hamid Karzai seeks a U.S. civilian surge in Afghanistan, which may be beyond U.S. capabilities.

The Taliban tightens its hold in Swat valley, as fighting resumes and civilians flee.  The U.S. is warily encouraged by Pakistan’s efforts against the Taliban near Islamabad.  Pakistan’s porous border poses immense challenges for the U.S.  The LA Times asks what the Pakistani people would tell President Obama.

Georgian troops mutinied at a base near the capitol, but the uprising was contained.  Georgia accused Russia of being behind the mutiny as a coup attempt.  NATO military exercises in the region are scheduled to begin tomorrow, ratcheting up tensions.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly rebuked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for dismissing an official.

Commentary of the Day

Ahmed Rashid discusses the importance of Pakistan’s “critical hour.”

Gideon Rachman says President Obama’s apologies for past U.S. actions are a sign of strength, not a weakness as U.S. conservatives have argued.

Former Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell urge President Obama and Congress not to forget about the importance of foreign aid.

The Contractor Recruitment Challenge Posted by Michael Cohen

Last month, Secretary of Defense Gates announced plans to "increase the size of the defense acquisition workforce, converting 11,000 contractors and hiring an additional 9,000 government acquisition professionals by 2015 – beginning with 4,100 in FY10."

It's great to see the SecDef focused on the need to improve the acquisition workforce. But as David Isenberg points out this week, reading though the most recent SIGIR (Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction) report there is some reason for concern about whether these numbers can be met:

The SIGIR report found that the US military lacks the capacity to manage its contractors in a contingency environment. Selecting CORs (contracting officer representative) with limited or no direct contract management experience, providing them on the job training and then assigning them other principal duties, increases the government's vulnerability.

Considering that the inadequate performance of CORs was identified as a significant failure in the report of the independent Commission on Army Acquisition and Program Management in Expeditionary Operations (the Gansler report) released in November 2007, the SIGIR report confirms how difficult it is to get adequately trained and resourced government personnel into the field to monitor private contractors.

It found that the situation might well get worse in the future as difficulties in managing these contracts could easily be exacerbated as the US military draws down its presence in Iraq and this affects its pool of experienced personnel.

I recommend reading the whole piece to get a clearer sense of the issues that the SIGIR report identified. But the takeaway here is sobering. Most people agree that we need to build up the acquisition workforce, but I'm not sure the challenges involved in moving the workforce more dramatically to the public sector are being fully appreciated. There are tools to get there - from recruitment bonuses and higher pay to promotion tracks and better training of contracting officers -- and they need to be part of any approach taken by the Pentagon to shift the balance.

I hope that Congress has some tough questions prepared when this issue arises because it may well be up to them to hold the Pentagon's feet to the fire on contractor recruitment.

This is Why You're Tired and Fat Posted by Adam Blickstein

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has a new study out analyzing various habits, such as eating and sleeping, of 18 of its member nations. Of course for the NY Post, the study confirms the prevailing view of France as an inherently inferior nation since the French lead the way in both eating and sleeping:

The white flag-waving, brie-eating French are living up to their stereotype as lovers of food -- and can now add sleep to their lazy ways, according to a new survey released today.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development looked at the amount of leisure time among 18 of its 30 member countries and found that the French excel at two leisure activities: spending huge amounts of time at the dinner table and in bed.

Now before we all scarf down some freedom fries in celebration, we shouldn't be so quick to declare victory over the heretofore easily defeatable French:

The United States had the highest overall obesity rate with 34.3 percent, trailed by Mexico with 30 percent and New Zealand with 25 percent, according to Yonhap News Agency. By gender, the obesity rates of U.S. men and women were the highest.

Japan had the lowest levels of obesity and overweight, followed by South Korea and France.

The kicker? According to the OECD, the U.S. spends about half as much time eating as the French do (nearly two hours to one hour). So while Americans spend far less time during the day with a fork or more likely greasy wax paper wrapper in their hands than most other nations, we are undoubtedly shoveling more unhealthy food into our gullets at a far quicker pace than the French. Fast food nation indeed

Off the Radar Screen - Indonesian Elections Posted by Michael Cohen

You don't hear much these days about Indonesia, which is both a good . . . and a bad thing.

The bad is that Indonesia just held its third peaceful parliamentary election in the 11 years since former President Suharto was dislodged from power. This represents an important advance for democracy worldwide and strongly undermines the notion that Islam and democracy are incompatible (Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world). This is not to mention the fact that this is great news for the Indonesian people!

The good is well, free and fair elections are become so routine in the Indonesian archipelago that it no longer seems to merit much global attention.

To be sure an election in Indonesia is no easy feat: there are 171 million registered votes spread out over 900 inhabited island. Voters have 38 national parties to choose from and there an estimated 800,000 candidates for parliament on the ballot. And that's just the Parliament: there is a further presidential election in July.

To give you a sense of how challenging it is to hold an election in a country as large as Indonesia, that vote was held April 9th and we still don't have the final results.  But, in some ways, less important than the results is the seeming enshrinement of democratic governance in Indonesia's political culture. As the Economist noted last month:

Thinking back to the political chaos, bloodshed and economic meltdown that surrounded Suharto’s departure, it is hard not to be impressed that the legitimacy of this convoluted process seems to enjoy such general support in Indonesia. Democracy has taken root and flourished.

That the transformation of Indonesia has happened in such a short time - in a country with a limited tradition of democratic rule - is, in many respects, a miracle and a further reminder about the indigenous nature of democratic transformation. Spurred by the Asian Financial Crisis, the removal of Suharto from power and the beginning of the "Reformasi" movement in the country was a homegrown endeavor. While democracy in Indonesia is far from perfect the signs to date are incredibly encouraging - a fact that has not gone unnoticed by the Obama Administration, as Secretary of State Clinton visited Jakarta in February and offered support for the democratic experiment unfolding there.

One of the most encouraging elements of that trip were signs that America's assistance support for Indonesia will continue, with a new arrangement to return the Peace Corps to Indonesia and the possibility of a further MCC compact down the road.  Simply because a country has started on the road to democratic rule does not mean its time to turn the aid spigot off. If anything, quite the opposite, as foreign assistance can play a crucial role in strengthening and solidifying democratic practices. Indonesia needs more, not less help from the US in ensuring that democratic gains there are consolidated.

Even more noteworthy is the role of political Islam in Indonesian affairs. According to early estimates of last month's poll Islamist parties did not fare well. This continues a trend of more orthodox Islamist groups demonstrating dwindling public support; with secular Islamic parties faring much better. 

One of the interesting points that my blogmate Shadi Hamid makes here is that by engaging Islamic groups in the election process - as oppose to banning them - Islamists don't become the face of the democratic opposition: they are judged on their own merits. What we've seen in Indonesia is that the more extreme a party's view of Islam's role in society the less well they fare at the ballot box.

There is a lesson here for US policymakers who fear free and fair elections featuring Islamist parties. Of course, it's hard to draw direct parallels between the experience of Indonesian democracy and that of other Muslim countries. Every country has its own unique political culture. But perhaps bringing Islamic parties into the political process may not necessarily be such a bad thing. In fact, if anything it might be the most effective tool at neutralizing the most toxic elements of Islamic orthodoxy.  Indeed, if Indonesia's experiment in democracy tells us anything it's that we should trust the voters.

NSN Daily Update 5/4/2009 Posted by The National Security Network

See today's complete daily update here.

What We’re Reading

As Pakistan deteriorates, the U.S. has few policy options.  The U.S. is particularly concerned about nuclear security.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai registered for the Afghan presidential election.  He announced a new running mate, a powerful Tajik warlord, and removed his current VP, the brother of a slain resistance hero.  A prominent opposition challenger withdrew his name from the presidential race after a four-hour meeting with Karzai.  President Karzai will join Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari in Washington later this week.

Questioned by a fourth grader at a Washington school, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice again defended President Bush on enhanced interrogation techniques, saying that he wouldn’t have authorized anything illegal.

Commentary of the Day

The New York Times urges the Obama administration to push harder for political reconciliation in Iraq.

The Wall Street Journal discusses the challenges facing Haiti and its new prime minster.

Amir Taheri looks at how Iran fills power vacuums and spreads its influence throughout the Middle East, claiming that the Obama administration’s “weakness” and exit strategy will allow Iran to rise regardless of diplomatic successes.

A.J. Langguth says that the U.S. in fact has a 45-year history of torture, describing U.S. involvement in atrocities in South America.