Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - British Version Posted by Michael Cohen

MIchael Crowley at TNR flags an interesting story from the UK's Guardian about doings in Afghanistan:

Gordon Brown has told the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, to put more Afghan troops into Helmand province immediately to make sure the costly territorial gains made by UK forces are not lost and British soldiers do not die in vain.

Amid mounting political pressure on the government over the sharp rise in British fatalities this month, Brown issued his demand to Karzai in a phone conversation on Sunday after talks with the US president, Barack Obama.

Less than 10% of the 80,000-strong Afghan army are stationed in Helmand even though 50% of the fighting is being conducted in the Taliban stronghold.

British forces have been repeatedly frustrated that they capture vital ground only for it to be ceded within months due to the lack of Afghan soldiers to move in and take control. There are only 500 Afghan troops involved in the British Operation Panther's Claw in Helmand province.

This is obviously well-known and mirrors complaints that you are hearing from American military officials. But here's the odd part. In a statement to Parliament, Prime Minister Brown makes a very different argument:

It has been a very difficult summer and it is not over yet but if we are to deny Helmand to the Taliban in the long term, if we are to defeat this insurgency, and by doing so make Britain and the world a safer place, then we must persist with our operations in Afghanistan … I am confident that we are right to be in Afghanistan, that we have the strongest possible plan."

Huh?  Clearly this is not true. If the Afghan government is not supporting the offensive in Helmand province - and if as many have suggested they lack the capacity to do the "hold" part of clear, hold and build -- and if UK forces are repeatedly frustrated that their efforts to clear vital ground are reversed . . . then how exactly is this strongest possible plan?  (I have to admit that after regularly reading the pronouncements of British officials about the war in Afghanistan, they seem far more divorced from reality and infused with absurd patriotic pablum than those of their counterparts in Washington).

At some point, one would hope that on both sides of the Atlantic there would be a recognition that the problem in Afghanistan is not one of tactics, but instead strategy - in other words the strategy is not realistic or achievable in the near-term. (Actually maybe I'm being to kind because from an operational standpoint things don't appear to be going swimmingly either).

This seems particularly important when one considers the obvious political constraints on Prime Minister Brown and the Labor Party.  One can imagine - quite frightfully - that US troops will muddle through even bad news and declining public support. But that doesn't seem to be the case in the UK where support for the war is on the wane. The problem seems to be that, as in this country, the political opposition is not interested in ratcheting down military efforts in Afghanistan, but instead doubling down.

My feelings on COIN are well-known, but even if you are an advocate of counter-insurgency there has to, at some point, be a recognition that Afghanistan might not be the best testing ground for FM 3-24.

ADDENDUM:

As an addendum I highly recommend reading this memo from Lord Ashdown to Condi Rice and Gordon Brown, written in December 2007 and recently published in his autobiography and at the Guardian. It seems as relevant now as it was then:

1. We do not have enough troops, aid or international will to make Afghanistan much different from what it has been for the last 1000 years – a society built around the gun, drugs and tribalism. And even if we had all of these in sufficient quantities, we would not have them for sufficient time – around 25 years or so – to make the aim of fundamentally altering the nature of Afghanistan, achievable. . . .

11. So one of our tasks is, gently, to lower expectations in the Western world and bring our ambitions back into the range of the achievable. This will certainly be difficult and may well make those who attempt it, unpopular.

12. There is one thing we have achieved, however, and, with skill and a ruthless prioritisation of resources, ought to be able to continue to achieve, even with diminished resources. That is denying the Islamic jihadists the use of Afghanistan for the kind of activities they conducted there prior to 9/11.

Islamic jihadist fighters may be taking part in the insurgency in Afghanistan, but they are no longer using the country for bases, recruitment and training These activities are now taking place over the border in Pakistan.

13. So the realistic aim in Afghanistan, with current resources, is not victory, but containment. Our success will be measured, not in making things different, but making them better; not in final defeat of the jihadists, but in preventing them from using Afghanistan as a space for their activity. These two aims will be difficult enough to achieve; but they are at least achievable.

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This seems particularly important when one considers the obvious political constraints on Prime Minister Brown and the Labor Party. One can imagine - quite frightfully - that US troops will muddle through even bad news and declining public support. But that doesn't seem to be the case in the UK where support for the war is on the wane. The problem seems to be that, as in this country, the political opposition is not interested in ratcheting down military efforts in Afghanistan, but instead doubling down.
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