LIttle Indications on Iran Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

So while we all spent yesterday celebrating Barack Obama's inauguration, it appears that Former Iranian President, and reformer, Muhammad Khatami announced his candidacy for the Iranian presidential election in June.  The timing is quite interesting although it is not at all clear if it is related to Obama's inauguration.  On top of that, there is also the fact that Obama's inauguration was the first American Presidential inauguration broadcast in Iran since the revolution. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is apparently taking steps to eject the Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK) from Iraq.  As the Washington Post explains:

The fate of the MEK has long been an irritant in relations between the government of Iraq, which has built close ties with Iran, and the U.S. government. The MEK received support from Saddam Hussein's government and has been designated a terrorist organization by the State Department, but the U.S. military has protected the group's base in Iraq, known as Camp Ashraf, since the 2003 invasion. U.S. officials credit the MEK with providing information about Iran's nuclear program.

Basically, this move would be welcomed by the Iranian government but might not go down so well with Neoconservatives, who have been strong supporters of the MEK for years.  Combine this with reports that after Obama's election Iran backing off on its strong opposition on the Iraq SOFA and you really are starting to see a pattern of slowly improving relations. 

Now, it's not clear what will happen.  And any diplomatic engagement will be long and messy and take time.  Iran and the U.S. have thirty years of bad relations, missed opportunities, and built up grievances.  That doesn't magically disappear because we have a new President.  And even if say a reformist candidate were elected President, it's not clear what Khamenei's approach to diplomacy with the U.S. would be (In fact a reformer President could make the whole process harder because you'd end up with a more disjointed Iranian government and fear that a reformist President would take credit for any major diplomatic progress).

But the broad point remains.  Things seem to be looking a little better and if the next few months in advance of the Iranian elections in June involve some more positive small steps, such as establishing a U.S. interests section in Tehran or starting direct flight from the U.S. to Iran, the stage could be set for more diplomatic progress.

Comments

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Well one thing that could scuttle the progress is an incident at sea between the US Navy and Iranian arms smugglers. As a result of the Bush-Livni parting gift agreement, US ships may already be hunting for Iranian arms shipments to Hamas.

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We described the confirmation of court rulings, in particular, that of 4 and 17 December of 2008, by envoys of EU states as a necessary and positive step, although overdue.
Mrs. Rajavi said, ’The fact is that since the court ruling on 4 December 2008 in favor of delisting the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), the PMOI was legally not on the EU terrorist list.’
Mrs. Rajavi expressed hope that the EU Council distance itself from any deals or appeasement with the religious fascism in Iran, and move quickly to abide with seven EU court judgments in favor of the PMOI. She called on the EU Council to officially and conclusively announce the removal of the PMOI from the EU terror list in the coming week.
Late this afternoon, Reuters news agency quoted EU diplomats as saying, ’European states have reached a preliminary agreement to remove exiled Iranian opposition group the People’s Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (PMOI) from an EU list of banned terrorist groups. It follows a string of European court decisions against the blacklisting of the group,’ and ’envoys from the EU states decided on Thursday to put forward a new terror list - without the PMOI - for the approval of their ministers on Monday.’
In the past years, despite rulings by the European Court of Justice and British courts, as well as consecutive resolutions by European parliaments demanding the removal of the PMOI from the terror list, the EU Council of Ministers refused to delist the organization in a bid to appease the mullahs’ regime.

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In the past years, despite rulings by the European Court of Justice and British courts, as well as consecutive resolutions by European parliaments demanding the removal of the PMOI from the terror list, the EU Council of Ministers refused to delist the organization in a bid to appease the mullahs’ regime.

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In 1987, the MEK was driven from its headquarters in France and moved its base to Iraq, where Saddam Hussein gave the group shelter.

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