Syria is Clearer in the Light of Day Posted by Patrick Barry

Morning brings clarity, and this morning's reporting on Syria shows that the Bush Administration is looking at cross-border attacks from a clouded strategic perspective.  Though the strike was reportedly a tactical success, it could not have come at a worse time.  Over the past year, Syria has made a clear and concerted effort to open up to the west - from engaging with traditional interlocutors like Turkey and France on Middle East peace to improving problematic relations with Lebanon through the establishment of a Syrian embassy in Beruit.  They even sent Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem to meet with Condoleezza Rice at the UN General Assembly.  Recent Syrian behavior gives every indication that they are primed for some kind of serious break-through.  As of this morning, that's no longer the case:

Damascus largely froze high-level diplomatic efforts with the U.S. after an American strike inside the country, a move that threatens support for broader peace initiatives in the Middle East...

...Syrian diplomats said that before the raid they had been considering inviting to Damascus the State Department's point man on the Middle East, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, for talks aimed on furthering Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations, as well as efforts to stabilize Lebanon and Iraq.

It isn't just Syria-U.S. diplomatic efforts that have been hampered by this attack.  The Bush Administration's decision could also have significant repercussions for the ongoing talks between Syria, Turkey and Israel (already complicated by internal Israeli political developments), as well the recently improved relations between Syria and Lebanon. 

I'll admit, the Bush Administration wasn't faced with an easy decision in this instance.  Whatever promising indicators have emerged over the past few months, a diplomatic coup with Syria is by no means a foregone conclusion, and the al-Qaeda leader killed in the attack was alledgedly responsibile for funneling hundreds of insurgents into Iraq.  What I would expect however, is an understanding of the veiled linkages that criss-cross the world's most unstabile regions (and the Middle East especially), an appreciation for how one decision can often carry broad, unforeseen ramifications.  The frequent air strikes in Pakistan, and now the attack in Syria give me no confidence that they have sufficiently recognized this point.

HT to Hanna

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Recent Syrian behavior gives every indication that they are primed for some kind of serious break-through. As of this morning, that's no longer the case:

What do you know? Could it be that some American political or military leaders, or their allies abroad, actually don't want a breakthrough with Syria? Say it ain't so!

Anyway, you had to figure something like this would go down in the final days of the US campaign. Hopefully the cooler heads on all sides will recognize that reality, and wait for US Crazy Days to blow over before adjusting policy too drastically.

[Simmons]

Though I agree with your premise that Israeli-Syrian negotiations are actually going somewhere (for once) and we should work with the two parties to get a satisfactory deal I disagree with your conclusion.
(a) It is still likely Syria will make a deal.
(b) As Obama has pointed out, crossing borders for high value targets is most definitely a smart thing to do.
(c) It sends a signal to regional countries, not the least of which is Iran, that we aren't fucking around, to put it simply.

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Though I agree with your premise that Israeli-Syrian negotiations are actually going somewhere (for once) and we should work with the two parties to get a satisfactory deal I disagree with your conclusion.

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Morning brings clarity, and this morning's reporting on Syria shows that the Bush Administration is looking at cross-border attacks from a clouded strategic perspective.

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