Original SOFA Plans Coming Home to Roost Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

One of the common themes in reporting about the U.S.-Iraq security framework agreement is that the Iranians are opposed to any kind of agreement and are doing all they can to stop it.  As the Washington Post reports today:

A deal to authorize the presence of American forces in Iraq beyond 2008 is forcing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to choose between two influential powers in this country: the United States and Iran.

Here is the thing. This whole situation may have been avoided, or at least not been quite as contentious, if the Bush administration hadn't originally pushed for an agreement that would specifically give the U.S. military the authority to use Iraq as a base to contain Iran.  Long before the Iraqi public had turned against the agreement and Maliki began pushing for a firm timeline this was supposed to be the Bush administration's attempt to lock the next President in.  The security framework negotiations were originally based on the Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship Between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America that was signed on November 26, 2007 and included this language:

Providing security assurances and commitments to the Republic of Iraq to deter foreign aggression against Iraq that violates its sovereignty and integrity of its territories, waters, or airspace.

This language was specifically about the U.S. military limiting Iranian influence in Iraq.  If you are the Iranian government how do you react to this?  Easy.  You work to actively undermine anything in the agreement.  And even though it seems quite apparent that such language is no longer in the agreement, I'm sure the Iranians are still skeptical.  By making such an aggressive play, the Bush administration pretty much signaled to the Iranians that they should in fact consider this agreement a competition for influence.   And considering that the Iranians have a great deal of political influence in Iraq including close ties with the dominant Shi'a parties, this was not a competition that we wanted or needed on an agreement that at it's core was simply supposed to offer basic legal protections to American forces in Iraq.

In addition, the original broad reaching language set off the American Congress, which questioned whether or not this was meant to tie the hands of the next President or commit the U.S. to a defacto treaty without being approved by Congress.  The result was a lot more scrutiny both in the U.S. and Iraq.  And eventually what may have been a complicated but doable agreement became a political football and struggle for outside power influence.

Ironically, all of the grand ambitions about opposing Iran and tying the hands of the next administration have now been taken out of the document.  And in fact they've been replaced by a pretty hard timeline for withdrawal - a significant blow to President Bush.  But the price of being so aggressive at the outset is still be paid.  The security agreement may still get done.  It may not, which would cause a real mess.  But one has to wonder.  If the Bush administration had at the start simply viewed this as an agreement on the legal status of American forces, and not tried to turn into a document that deters Iran and ties the hands of the next President, would we still be talking about this agreement?  Or would it have been done a long time ago?

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

And even though it seems quite apparent that such language is no longer in the agreement, I'm sure the Iranians are still skeptical. By making such an aggressive play, the Bush administration pretty much signaled to the Iranians that they should in fact consider this agreement a competition for influence.

Ilan, I would think it is perfectly obvious that so long as the US and Iran have the kind of relationship they do - a somewhat hostile one - any permanent US military presence right next door in Iraq, including bases, would be seen by the Iranians as a threat to their interests. It really doesn't matter what kind of language is or is not included in any proposed SOFAs. The Iranians know perfectly well what are the strategic plans and intentions of the US government, since those plans and intentions are fairly transparent, and they know why it is the US wants to build a permanent presence in Iraq. And they also know that no matter how you slice or spin that presence it is not good for Iran, given the present state of the US-Iran relationship.

When you are playing chess, you don't need the other guy to issue a hostile proclamation after every move to know that his moves are intended to be contrary to your interests. Forget about diplomatic language in SOFA agreements. The only kind of thing that will change the current dynamic is if the US and Iran move toward establishing a different kind of relationship. Otherwise, it is well nigh obvious that the Iranians are going to do whatever they can to keep the US from setting up a short-range Persian shooting gallery just across their border.

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