Are the Realists Ascendant? Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

James Joyner takes issue with my piece arguing that Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama marks a major break within the Republican foreign policy establishment. Joyner argues that there is a broad historical consensus between most of the members of the Republican and Democratic foreign policy communities and that the real outliers are the Necons. I agree. But then he goes on to say this.

Realism and its variants are the dominant mindset of that Establishment and neoconservatism (and its cross-party counterpart, liberal interventionism) is the decided outlier. Relegating it to the margins isn't killing the Republican foreign policy establishment: it's restoring it.

One problem. Can someone please show me how the Necons have been marginalized within the political process? The Republican Party's standard bearer is a Necon. John McCain's views on refusing to negotiate with Iran, taking a hardline approach to Russia, and forming the League of Democracies are all Neocon views that are rejected by the realists. It may be that in 2003 the establishment eventually came around to the idea of the War in Iraq, but McCain was advocating for the war right after the 9/11 attacks. The only people who were doing that were the Necons. McCain's lead foreign policy advisor is Randy Scheunemann - a Neocon. If McCain wins, the Neocons are back in business and the realists are even more marginalized - especially since they opposed him.

In the more likely case that he loses, it comes down to a question of who will lead the Republican party in 2012. If Palin, Giuliani, or Huckabee are the nominees the realist wing will all be full fledged Democrats. If the Republicans nominate a sane moderate then the realists might stay in the party and retake control.

But from where we stand today. Having the biggest realist names in the Republican party disagreeing with the nominee and having the single biggest name actually endorse the Democratic candidate does not demonstrate that they are seizing control of the party and marginalizing the Neocons. It demonstrates is that they are being marginalized within their own party.

Comments

[Peace]

The realist have not had any real power since the mid-neties when everybody thought that the end of the Cold War was due to Reagan's hardline attitiude toward the Soviet Union. So even the Clinton took a hardline with a no negotiations stance towards Iran,supported regime change in Iran, and expanded NATO. But after the disaster of the Second Iraq War, the realists now seemed to be an on the rise again.

[Don Bacon]

Powell's endorsement of Obama, involving a quid pro quo spot in an Obama administration, was all about the rehabilitation of Colin Powell and nothing else. He will be transformed from a war criminal SecState, largely responsible for the worst foreign policy blunder in US history, to a valued foreign policy advisor. Imagine that! If Dean Rusk had been half as clever he might have garnered a spot in the Nixon administration. Crazy.

Powell's whole career has been one of poor judgment and self-promotion. This is just another chapter. Let's not make too much of it.

[Dan Kervick]

I just don't see in any way how we could say that Realism - the foreign policy doctrine that is properly so called - is the dominant foreign policy doctrine of the Democratic Party. The Albright-Holbrooke tendency would still appear to be the dominant faction in the Democratic establishment, including as represented on this blog, and is not a school of foreign policy Realism.

Of course, one might use "Realism" in a bastard sense just to describe any foreign policy approach that is more "realistic" in its appraisal of US power and capabilities than neoconservatism. But that's slight of hand. When people speak in a properly well-informed way about schools of foreign policy thought, "Realism" is used in both a descriptive and normative sense refer to a foreign policy based on the pursuit of self-interest, where the pursuit of self-interest is regarded somewhat coldly and soberly as the pursuit of power, security and material prosperity. Foreign policies that attribute to the United States any grand ideological purpose, such as spreading "democracy" or "liberal civil society" are not versions of Realism.

[Peace]

Up until 1997, Clinton did have a successful and realist foreign policy in which the conflict in Bosnia was ended and there was progress in the Arab-israeli talks. But after 1997, Clinton took more of a idealistic tone, by allowing former Eastern European countries to become a part of NATO in 1999. This only angered Russia, and left bitter divisions between that country and the United States during the Kosovo crisis. Also Clinton took a more pro-Israeli position during the peace talks and this made any US backed agreement betweeen the Israelis and Palestinians impossible.

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That was a very interesting read, thanks for taking the time to post it.