NSN Daily Update – 7/10/08 Posted by The National Security Network

Iran’s Missile Test Demonstrates The Urgent Need For Aggressive Diplomatic Action

Iran’s missile test on Wednesday demonstrates that the Iranian regime has grown stronger and more dangerous in the wake of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Iran’s continued nuclear development is of great concern, yet the Bush administration’s approach - one that shuns aggressive diplomatic action in favor of chest-thumping threats of military strikes – has proved utterly ineffective.  Unfortunately, John McCain is for continuing this failed approach, which – just as in the case of North Korea – will only increase the likelihood of a nuclear Iran.

According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the U.S. is no closer to war with Iran.  When asked if the U.S. was any closer to confrontation after the Iran test-fired missiles Gates said, "No, I don't think so."  He continued, “There is a lot of signaling going on. But I think everybody recognizes what the consequences of any kind of a conflict would be." [Reuters, 7/10/08]

Iranian actions intended to deter attack according to American intelligence official. “Some in the U.S. saw the Iranian tests on Wednesday as essentially deterrent in nature. A senior American intelligence official said the missile tests, together with belligerent comments by Iranian officials, seemed part of a strategy to warn Iran’s neighbors of its “capacity to inflict pain.” “I think Iran has a hedgehog strategy: mess with me and you’ll get stuck,” said the official, Thomas Fingar, the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and head of the National Intelligence Council. [NY Times, 7/10/08]

McCain wants to continue Bush’s failed policies on Iran.  NPR noted that “McCain believes that the Bush administration's approach has been the right one, which he intends to continue and improve upon.” Yet this approach has proved ineffective. As Lawrence Korb and Sean Duggan write in the Guardian “Had the Bush administration responded to the North's overtures before their 2006 test, it is likely that it would have had a better agreement; the US would have been negotiating from a position of strength, not weakness. While it is too late to revisit the past with North Korea, the administration should learn its lessons as it deals with Iran over its nuclear programme. As the great Israeli general Moshe Dayan said: ‘If you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.’ It is past time for the Bush administration to heed this advice so that it does not have to settle for a poor deal with Iran as well.” [NPR, 7/10/08, Guardian, 7/9/08]

The U.S. must engage diplomatically with Iran. “It is absolutely critical that we engage in direct dialogue, without preconditions. Talking and negotiating with unfriendly nations and letting them know exactly where we stand is an important element of diplomacy. It is not the same as making broad concessions without getting anything in return. In fact Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton all engaged in at least one round of serious dialogue with Iran and none required preconditions. We must also tone down the “cowboy diplomacy” and regime change rhetoric with the expectation that Iranian counterparts would respond in kind. Moving away from the harshest rhetoric would signal to the Iranians that we are serious about improving relations.” As Henry Kissinger explained “‘One should be prepared to negotiate, and I think we should be prepared to negotiate about Iran’…Asked whether he meant the US should hold direct talks, Kissinger responded: `Yes, I think we should.’” [NSN, 06/08, Bloomberg 3/14/08]

Quick Hits

The Iraqi military could be ready to operate alone “as early as April.” Lt. General James Dubik, who was the US officer leading the efforts of training and equipping Iraqi forces, testified on Capitol Hill that the Iraqi military will “mostly be done by middle of next year”. The news comes as the Iraqi government grows more confident in dealing with the US, as it has signaled that it wants a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.

Iraqi militias are using new, increasingly lethal weapons against US troops. “Improvised Rocket Assisted Munitions, or IRAMs,” have circulated despite US measures to counter the use of explosive weaponry and are being utilized more frequently throughout the country.

The North Koreans are stalling negotiations until there’s a new US president. Talks start today in Beijing, but progress is improbable. “Many analysts and government officials are skeptical” of North Korea’s willingness to cooperate on nuclear issues and foresee stalled talks until a new administration enters the White House in January.

Foreign fighters are coming to Pakistan to support the insurgency in Afghanistan in high numbers, swelling the ranks of Al Qaeda. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates added that “the ability of the Taliban and other insurgents to cross that border and not being under any pressure from the Pakistani side of the border is clearly a concern.”

Veterans for America released a report finding that “almost half of the Soldiers who are scheduled to deploy to Iraq will come from the National Guard.”

Comments

[John Maszka]

What is a state like Iran supposed to do? The United States and the Bush administration have been threatening Iran for years with its foreign policy and its rhetoric. Of course Iran is trying to look strong. What we need to do now is back off and leave Iran an honorable path of retreat (Colin Powell, Craft of Diplomacy, 2004).

Bush and his cronies say they want peace and diplomacy, but the problem with the members of Bush administration is that you can’t trust them. You can’t take what they at face value.

“I believe President Bush is going to order air strikes (on Iran) before he leaves office”
-Norman Podhoretz (Lyons, 2007).

As former Nixon aide John W. Dean wrote, “George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney have created the most secretive presidency of my lifetime. Their secrecy is far worse than during Watergate” (quoted in Wittkopf and Jones, 2008, 329).

The administration secretly planned and prepared for war with Iraq without disclosing it to the general public. Planning began in November of 2001 and included upgrading airfields in various Gulf countries, moving supplies to the region and the construction of necessary facilities. By April 2002, the planning and preparation for war was also being hidden from Congress. Bush had instructed General Tommy Franks not to make financial requests through Washington. “Anything you need, you’ll have.” The money would no longer be appropriated through congress. By the end of July 2002, Bush had approved more than thirty projects totaling over $700 million. Congress had no knowledge or involvement (Woodward, 2004, 122).

In December of 2002, Bush and Rumsfeld agreed to start secretly deploying troops into the theatre so as not to attract the attention of the press or the rest of the world. The first deployment order went out on December 6, 2002 and deployments continued every two weeks or so thereafter. Troops were given less than a week’s notice at times. In January 2003, the Bush administration arranged for much of its humanitarian relief to be disguised as general contributions to conceal its war planning from the NGO recipients. Yet, when asked about Iraq, Bush’s favorite response was “I have no war plans on my desk.” At one point or another after the planning began, nearly every member of the administration publicly denied any plans to go to war with Iraq (Woodward, 2004, 129).

A better approach to Iran would be negotiations. While Fareed Zakaria agrees that there is no reason not to use sanctions and embargoes against states such as Iran, he suggests that we also need to “allow a viable way out.” That is to say, we need to negotiate and not merely mandate.

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