A Few Simple Maxims
Posted by David Shorr
Recent twists in the Iran debate have reaffirmed for me a couple of foreign policy principles I treat as axiomatic. Yesterday Tony Lake told the Financial Times:
Unless you assume that [Iranian negotiators] have IQs less than those of eggplants, they are not likely to make major concessions for the privilege of speaking with us. So the question is: what is your strategy for the talks?
The last years have been an experiment with the bad-guys-should-just-do-what-they're-supposed-to approach. Hypothesis disproved. If the weight of international sentiment and moral authority is arrayed against the target regime, then you can make ultimatums. Otherwise, in diplomacy you don't get something for nothing.
As to attacking Iran, we have a new scary report from Seymour Hersh. Which brings me to another rule of thumb confirmed by recent experience: foreseeable unintended consequences are often more important for deciding on major policy moves than the, sometimes questionable, intended outcome. Which puts us once again in the zone of things we shouldn't have to say. If the United States attacks Iran without first undertaking a dogged search for a diplomatic solution, the rest of the world will be done with us. Finished. Fed up. Repulsed. We will truly be the rogue superpower. Any effort being given to considering or discussing it is a waste of precious time.
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