Zakaria on Iraq Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Zakaria has suggestions for Obama's next speech on Iraq.  I think this is pretty much on the money. 

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Oh Lord. I'm afraid he is going to have to come up with something more sharp and compelling than Zakaria's vapid and awkward load of mealy-mouthed gunk.

[David Billington]

Although I would question him on some points, I thought Zakaria had some far-sighted things to say in his recent Foreign Affairs article. In his proposed speech above, however, the following comments could be made:

"The price tag in dollars has also been staggering. In the last five years, the United States has spent close to $1 trillion on the invasion and occupation of Iraq. That is enough money to rebuild every school, bridge and road in America, create universal health care and fund several Manhattan Projects in alternative energy."

This argument assumes that Congress would have appropriated $1 trillion for these purposes. A Congress with both houses under stronger Democratic control may do so but the American people will have to signal their desire for it to happen.

"All today's gains could disappear when American troops leave—and they will have to leave one day."

We are facing another "decent interval" if the situation in Iraq is so easily reversible. If so, then as in Vietnam, unless we are prepared to re-intervene with major force, it will be up to the local government to hold things together once we draw down or withdraw. A residual US force won't be needed if things go well and won't be enough if they do not.

"But finally, I would return to my original concerns. General Petraeus has successfully executed the task he was given, to shore up a collapsing situation in Iraq. But his responsibility was Iraq. His new area of operation stretches from the Arab world into Pakistan and Afghanistan. There lie the most dangerous and immediate threats to American security. The Taliban is enjoying its greatest resurgence since 9/11. Former U.S. commander Gen. Dan McNeill has said we need at least two more combat brigades to fight it. But there are literally no brigades to spare because of our massive commitment in Iraq."

What will two more brigades accomplish in Afghanistan? Would a surge there have the same results as in Iraq?

[Zathras]

Interesting that Zakaria proposes that candidate Obama say precisely the opposite of what President Obama would likely do about Iraq. Zakaria suggests flattering Obama's fellow Democrats in Congress with the idea that their pressure has forced Iraq's government to do as much as it has toward reconciliation; if it does more, he recommends Obama consider slowing down American withdrawal.

An Obama administration would face the greatest pressure to keep American forces in Iraq if things there threatened to get worse with American withdrawing. If they were getting better, he'd have every reason to accelerate American withdrawal, and plenty of Iraqis would cheer him on. A long-term American military presence in a secure Iraq, without combat or casualties, is after all John McCain's position, not Obama's. Why would Obama pursue a course that might only diverge from what McCain is recommending six or seven years from now?

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