Father of Aardvark Weighs In Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Marc Lynch weighs in on the Katulis/Kahl debate and I gotta say he gives the single best assessment I've read for why the Anbar strategy is likely doomed to strategic disaster.  The whole post is worth reading but here's my favorite part.

The last four years have left me deeply skeptical of any argument which requires either a high degree of sophisticated American micromanagement or a large number of things which have to go right.   Kahl advocates a version of Stephen Biddle's notion of manipulating the sectarian balance of power:   “Sunnis must have enough capabilities to defend their local interests, but not enough to take-over the government.” But think about the degree of precision necessary here – in an environment where we hardly seem to know where the guns are going or who our allies are.    I am skeptical about the applicability of offensive- defensive distinctions ("The creation of viable local security forces with *defensive* capabilities) - any weapon that you can use to fight against al-Qaeda can also be used against a Shia militia (or family).  I don't see how this alleviates the sectarian security dilemma.  The only thing which would do that would be the tight integration of military capability into an institutionalized, centralized security force -  the whole "monopoly on the legitimate use of violence" thing which goes into being a state.   

Comments

[SolderNoLongerInIraq]

'the whole "monopoly on the legitimate use of violence" thing which goes into being a state.'

One might suggest that an Arabist would understand the fragility of a "state" stitched from the dreams of Gertrude Bell, a "nation" that doesn't even include in its northern climes that many "Arabs." Some Arabists might suggest that the prudent policy when dealing with the long awaited breakup of a rump "nation" chopped from the rump of the Ottoman Empire, such as with Bosnia-Serbia as morphed through the Austrians, would be to partition.

Partitioning is messy, and it demands localized security first from foreign elements, not to mention the rebuilding of local institutions (bazaar, iqta, kinship leaders, tribal chiefs, whatever) to provide a basic governance unlikely to come from a central "government" that thus far is as corrupt and weak as it is illegitimate in the eyes of those particularly prone to bringing in foreign help.

One might think that such an Arabist might, at some time, actually had sojourned to Iraq and studied the complex ethnicities and understood that as a "nation" it is something of a fiction, and has been from the days of Faisal through the many despots that replaced the regal family (a family also not from "Iraq").

One might indeed be tempted to suggest that men with no basic understanding of warfare, with knowledge ready at hand from internet searches and long-forgotten graduate courses on outdated notions of Middle Eastern politics, perhaps are poor voices to be heard in these fora.

Which is why, apparently, they must be amplified.

[Don Bacon]

Soldier, there you go again, claiming falsely that an understanding of warfare denotes excellence in understanding ME political matters, which has no basis in fact. When soldiers begin to think about whet they're doing the whole mission is compromised, you know that. And trying to understand the enemy only lessens your ability to carry out the orders which require you to kill him.

Prattling about the "northern climes" of Iraq and "stitched from the dreams of Gertrude Bell" is colorful writing. I enjoy reading it and applaud you for it. But what's the point, other than to down others who fail your warrior test? Oh, it's to claim that Iraq isn't a nation. But its Arab inhabitants claim that it is, as you well know, and don't want it broken up.

Why don't you use your expertise to comment on the current US policy of arming gangs and tribes, many members of which have been killing US troops, and may do so again?

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[Kerry]

The night of the fight, you may feel a slight sting. That's pride f*cking with you. F*ck pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps.
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