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October 16, 2007

What Federalism Isn't
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

OK, I’m in a very bloggy mood this morning.  So, my last and final post before I go back to some other things.  I agree with David on most things and I don’t think we are that far off here, but it’s worth responding to his post about federalism.

First, the word federalism has been hijacked by the whole Biden-Gelb approach, which the Iraqis themselves don’t like.  You aren’t going to find a simple three state (or province) solution to this mess.  But, every time anyone says the word federalism it seems to mean partition of Iraq into three states.  In practice federalism just means devolving more power to the local actors and building a central government that is generally weak and holds the various local actors together.  There are many different forms that the system can take, and coming up with some kind of reasonable proposal on this front doesn’t do all that much damage.

I agree with David, that doing so might just force the various Iraqi players further apart.  But, this is happening anyway and is already a fact of life in Iraq.  Political power has shifted to local actors and any political settlement will ultimately involve some kind of decentralized system.  There isn’t much disagreement on that (Check out the Katulis-Korb plan section on fragmentation).  So, generally working in this direction makes sense.  Better to go with the flow than to artificially try and focus only on a strong irrelevant national government. 

In terms of whether or not the U.S. should play any role.  That criticism is fair and was made by a number of commenters.  The U.S. will ultimately be a party to any settlement as well Iraq’s neighbors.  So it might better to bring in the UN in to help mediate.  I don’t know.  I don’t have strong feelings on this point.  And maybe we should just not get involved at all.  But again, if we are leaving anyway and we make clear that we are leaving and that the Iraqis have to figure this out, why not throw an idea at them, get their input and help facilitate some discussions.  If it doesn’t work.  It doesn’t work.  I just don't see David's concerns here and don't understand what we have to lose.

Just to repeat.  This idea doesn’t in anyway replace the concept of leaving now.  I fundamentally believe that to make American safer we need to leave Iraq now, refocus on other threats and rebuild the military.  I am supportive of CAP's Strategic Reset plan.  But trying to help negotiate a political settlement as we leave comes at no cost to us.

Oh and as for David’s point on history.  They told me in grad school that history is a terrible indicator of future events.  It just happens to be better than any other indicator we have.

October 16, 2007 at 01:04 PM |

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